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Metropolitan Division
Washington Capitals: (Moderate) buyers
The “all-in’’ years of the Capitals are behind them. They’ve not got the kind of credit they deserve for sitting first in the Metro in a transition year with younger players in the lineup after the off-season losses of players like Justin Williams, Marcus Johansson, Karl Alzner and Nate Schmidt. Honestly, I don’t think the organization knew how the team would truly react this season to all the change after yet another crushing defeat to Pittsburgh in the playoffs last spring, seemingly closing their championship window.
Well, they’re in first place in their division.
So, now what?
GM Brian MacLellan spent big on rental Kevin Shattenkirk last year at the deadline without the desired results. Their No. 1 need this year is indeed a veteran defenceman but at a moderate price this time around. Would pending UFA Johnny Oduya in Ottawa make sense?
Pittsburgh Penguins: Buyers
GM Jim Rutherford, no doubt, pines for the pre-cap era. If money wasn’t an issue the Penguins would have added again by now, although they made deals earlier this season for bottom-six center Riley Sheahan and defenseman Jamie Oleksiak. Rutherford, it appears, remains in search of another center and has looked in on the likes of Tomas Plekanec (cap hit likely too big), Jean-Gabriel Pageau (Sens likely aren’t moving him), Mark Letestu, Derick Brassard (cap hit likely too big) and Matt Cullen.
Would a return of Cullen from Minnesota make sense? The Pens have very little cap room, but they still want to add. Let’s see what the wily veteran Rutherford does for his back-to-back Cup champion club which has come alive and is looking for a three-peat.
Philadelphia Flyers: (Moderate) buyers
Injuries at this time of year suddenly change a team’s plans and No. 1 goalie Brian Elliott going down for 5-6 weeks might prompt GM Ron Hextall to bring in some insurance behind Michal Neuvirth to protect the team’s tenuous playoff position. Would either of Chad Johnson, Petr Mrazek or Calvin Pickard make sense? Otherwise, Hextall seems to be indicating a disciplined plan ahead of the deadline where he maintains his big-picture vision — he’s patiently built this team over the last few years and isn’t about to start doling out first-round picks and top prospects for rentals with a playoff spot not fully assured yet.
New Jersey Devils: (Careful) buyers
GM Ray Shero already made an impactful move earlier this season in bringing in top-4 D Sami Vatanen. My guess is if he does something else it’s either a hockey deal or a soft rental move for a top-9 forward but he’s not inclined at this point to pay big prices. Shero won’t lose sight of the fact the Devils are still early in their transformation and have surprised in being in the playoff race.
Carolina Hurricanes: (Moderate) buyers
The Hurricanes have come alive with three straight wins and sit in the last wild-card spot by one point over Columbus and three above the Islanders, as of Wednesday morning. The word out of Carolina is that GM Ron Francis would be open to adding a top-6 or top-9 forward but in a hockey deal, preferably not a rental. He’s also got bottom-six checking forward Marcus Kruger for sale after he cleared waivers last week. Francis is believed to be willing to eat some of his remaining contract to get a trade done. It’s worth noting it is the first trade deadline with new owner Tom Dundon in the house. From all accounts, Dundon has been actively intrigued by all things Hurricanes since taking over. Is there added pressure on Francis to impress the new boss before the deadline?
Columbus Blue Jackets: TBD
Huge win at Brooklyn on Tuesday night but the Blue Jackets over the past two months have been like a box of chocolates, you never know what you’re going to get. The offense, for the most part, has struggled this year. No question in the right deal the Jackets would love to acquire a top-six forward. Meanwhile, pending UFA blueliner Jack Johnson still has his trade request on the table. As I reported last week, it’s believed the Jackets might have a late first-round pick on the table, or at least did last week, for Johnson. But they want a forward. Perhaps multiple transactions is the way to go here. Tough position to be in for a team that many thought would challenge for the Metro division title this season.
New York Islanders: TBD
GM Garth Snow, in a Q&A earlier this week with The Athletic colleague Arthur Staple, suggested that while he does have two first-round picks and two second-round picks, he’s not inclined to spend them on rental players ahead of the deadline, which probably makes sense given his team isn’t currently sitting in a playoff spot. On the other hand, I would suggest there’s pressure to make a hockey deal or two for players signed past this season in order to help his team make the playoffs in a year in which so much is riding around John Tavares’ UFA decision.
Yes, obviously the Isles could use an upgrade in goal (would Mrazek make sense?) but let’s be honest, the defensive play in front of the Isles goalies is unacceptable. They need a blueline upgrade even more than a goalie fix, in my humble opinion. Of course, adding impactful defensemen at this time of year comes a very high cost.
New York Rangers: Sellers
They’re only four points out of a playoff spot but again, I’m on record saying GM Jeff Gorton is doing the right thing, the difficult thing, in announcing a rebuild after a decade-plus of contending. Pending UFAs Rick Nash, Nick Holden and Michael Grabner will be dealt before Feb. 26 and we’ll see if there are bigger hockey deals involving Ryan McDonagh, J.T. Miller, Mats Zuccarello or Chris Kreider.
If I’m Gorton, I’m all over Tampa Bay and Boston to try to entice them in a McDonagh deal. Grabner, meanwhile, is likely getting the most traction given his cheap cap hit ($1.65 million) and production (23 goals). Can the Blueshirts extract a low first-round pick for him? The Rangers will eat some money on Nash’s $7.8-million cap hit in order to maximize return. If I’m Gorton, I’m all over Nashville on that one. They’re in win-now mode and are looking for a top-six winger.
Atlantic Division
Tampa Bay Lightning: Buyers
I chatted with GM Steve Yzerman on Monday about the trade deadline, and it’s clear the architect of the first-place Bolts is grappling with what he knows his team needs, the high prices that are out there right now, and how last year some teams spent big without the desired effect.
Still, I think Yzerman finds a way to upgrade his blueline before the deadline. Whether that’s a rental like Jack Johnson or Mike Green or a bigger hockey deal for McDonagh, or something else, getting a top four if, at all possible, would be what this team needs most. Adding a top-nine forward isn’t out of the question, either. The Bolts have all their draft picks at their disposal plus a deep, deep list of prospects in the organization. So they’ve got a full toolbox to play with if they decide to act.
Boston Bruins: Buyers
It wouldn’t surprise me if GM Don Sweeney adds both a piece up front and on the back end. He tried on Vatanen earlier this season before Anaheim shipped him to New Jersey and my understanding is that his desire to add some help on the blueline persists. Would he get in on a bigger play for McDonagh or dial it down with more of a depth piece? Would adding rental winger Patrick Maroon from Edmonton be a fit? Like Tampa, Boston is well set up with a nice pool of prospects plus their high picks in the next two entry drafts in place. What’s intriguing is the idea that Tampa and Boston, vying for the Atlantic Division title, could be bidding on similar players which will help the sellers in question drive up the price.
Toronto Maple Leafs: Buyers
The Leafs tried on Travis Hamonic last June, they dabbled on Vatanen earlier this season, and they continue to look for blueline help. It’s believed the Leafs have inquired about Johnson although how much Toronto would be willing to pay remains in question. The Leafs are also at the maximum 50 contracts so whatever they do between now and the deadline they need some breathing room if they’re going to add.
I believe they’re inclined to keep pending UFAs James van Riemsdyk, Tyler Bozak and Leo Komarov for the playoff drive and live with the fact they may lose all three this summer. A deep playoff run is certainly worth it in that case. The Leafs know their rivals, Tampa and Boston, are looking to add, does that mean anything to them? You know what head coach Mike Babcock surely is saying in those meetings with the Leafs front office: “Get me a defenceman.’’
So, the question is this: does Leafs brass truly believe adding a piece or two is worth the price in future assets to go for a run now or do you adhere strictly to the price limit you’ve set if you’re GM Lou Lamoriello and live with the fact you may or may not add a piece, ensuring that the long-term plan doesn’t get dinged? Debate, Leaf fans.
Detroit Red Wings: Sellers
Pending UFA Mike Green is the big fish on the market for the Wings. He’s got a full no-trade but is willing to waive it for the right contender. At least a two-asset haul including a first-round pick seems part of the ask. Does GM Ken Holland and his former Hall of Fame superstar Steve Yzerman get together on a deal? Or can Holland entice the Caps into taking Green back?
Goalie Petr Mrazek is an RFA July 1 but it’s doubtful the Wings qualify him at $4 million so he’s really a rental in many ways, as colleague Craig Custance argued earlier this week. If I’m Holland, I’m all over the Flyers and Islanders with Mrazek. Otherwise, Holland will obviously listen on hockey deals for several of his players, but keep in mind as he continues to transition the Red Wings, he also wants a competitive team next fall, so this isn’t about giving away players for draft picks for the sake of it. If there’s a hockey deal that makes sense, he’ll listen to it.
Florida Panthers: Sellers (kind of)
Unless he’s playing poker with all of us, GM Dale Tallon says he’s looking for stability around his talented young core of players and not looking to do a whole lot ahead of the deadline. Pending UFA winger Radim Vrbata is available and the Panthers have his list of teams via his modified no-trade clause. At 36 years old and only having five goals on the season, I can’t imagine there’s too big of a market for him but I guess since he did score 20 goals last year, there might be a team that offers Florida a middling pick for him.
Montreal Canadiens: Sellers
Are they really sellers, though? Tomas Plekanec is the only real pending UFA of note and it’s not out of the question they re-sign him, although for the right return I think GM Marc Bergevin would also trade him. Otherwise, you’re looking at hockey deals with most of this roster signed past this year. The kind of re-tooling Bergevin plans to do with this team can just as much be happening this summer when teams have more cap flexibility. It will really depend on the kind of offers a desperate playoff-bound team offers up.
So unless a team offers a talented, young center as part of a Max Pacioretty deal, I’m not sure why the Habs would think of moving their captain. There are teams who are interested in Andrew Shaw but the Canadiens currently don’t seem inclined to move him. I suppose that could always change but that’s the feeling right now. Most interesting to me is how rival team execs react when I ask what they think Bergevin might end up doing before the deadline. Their answers are all over the place. What’s Bergevin’s favorite saying? “Expect the unexpected.’’
Ottawa Senators: Sellers
It began with the Dion Phaneuf deal, which despite taking back Marian Gaborik as part of the package, will net the club a saving in real cash of north of $5 million. Like Montreal, Ottawa isn’t in a traditional seller seat, with only Johnny Oduya as the notable pending UFA. GM Pierre Dorion will move him for a middling to low pick. The real question is whether Dorion makes more hockey deals. He’s listening mostly on Derick Brassard, Mike Hoffman, Zach Smith and Ryan Dzingel, players all signed past this season.
The price for Brassard set by Dorion is a first-round pick, top prospect and a third piece. A bit rich for your blood? I’m sure Dorion would point to the fact Brassard is the top centre on the trade market right now so the price should indeed be high. I also believe a team has already indicated to Dorion that they’d pay a first-round pick for Hoffman but the Senators want more than that. In the end, if nobody pays the high prices, Dorion doesn’t have to move any of these players before Feb. 26. Like Montreal, the re-tooling can continue in the summer.
Buffalo Sabres: Sellers
It’s really all about Evander Kane. The pending UFA winger has been on the trade market for quite a while. The arrival of Nash on the market last week provided stiff competition for the Sabres but on the other hand, I think GM Jason Botterill feels if Nash gets dealt first, it will help firm up the market price and all those teams that struck out on the Rangers winger will circle back to the Sabres for Kane. Then again, perhaps a team steps up sooner on Kane and pays the price (first-round pick, prospect and a third piece). Obviously, the Sabres are willing to move pending UFAs Benoit Pouliot, Jordan Nolan and Josh Gorges, as well as listen on pending UFA goalie Chad Johnson if there’s a need.
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